Houston Astros will be back. Sorry haters.
Anyone who thinks they have seen the last of the Houston Astros after seven consecutive seasons is sadly mistaken.
Free Agency
First, let us look at the pending free agents this off-season.
Uncle Mike is thirty-six years old and played 79 games in the past two seasons (15 in 2023). He is undoubtedly a clubhouse leader, and that presence is worth something, but nothing close to what he has been paid the past two years to pretty much not play.
Houston will only be bidding against themselves for his services. Unless he is interested in taking a team-friendly deal at a significantly reduced rate, the 12 million he was paid for 15 games this year could be invested wisely elsewhere.
With the change in manager, I wonder if this is the year that Brantley takes his leadership ability to become part of the coaching staff—just an idea.
Prediction: He retires and becomes a part of the following staff in Houston. He is saving the team 12 million from last year.
Technically, he is not a free agent, but he has a player option of 8.5 million, which I think he likely will pick up since he seems to have a nice spot in the bullpen.
Houston could lower the 8.5 million cap hit by extending him on a deal that Spotrac suggests of three years at roughly twenty-one million, reducing his cap from 8.5 to 7 million.
Prediction: Neris picks up the option, and Houston extends to a multi-year deal. Lowers cap by 1.5 million.
Martin handles the staff well and is strong defensively, but he is almost a guaranteed out at the plate. A lifetime .207 hitter, Martin has seen the end of the road as a starter anywhere in this league.
One of his biggest advocates is leaving the franchise in Dusty Baker, and for the Astros to return to the World Series, they need more productions from this spot in the lineup. I do not see a road back to Houston as a player for Martin Maldonado.
One significant change for 2024 will be the start of Yainer Diaz's years in Houston as their man behind the plate. In Diaz’s first year in the majors, his batting average was 91 points higher than Martin, with 31 more hits than Maldonado on seven fewer at-bats.
Granted, Yainer’s at-bats were too often as a DH, but now it needs to be as the everyday catcher.
Prediction: If the rumor of Dusty heading to San Francisco after his “retirement” settles, I can see him bringing Maldonado. If not, Martin gets into coaching at some level since we know catchers make the best managers.
He is a reasonably dependable arm in the bullpen for the Astros. Stanek, at 32 years old, has averaged a little under 60 innings a year in the past three seasons, and I am sure the Astros would take him back for similar numbers to what he received this year (3.6 million), a two-year deal for 8 million.
The better question is, will Stanek be happy with that or take a big payday with possibly a more prominent role elsewhere?
Prediction: He will find a better offer (even slightly) elsewhere
Phil had a better 2023 season than 2022 (if you go by the numbers), and Maton might be the type of arm at thirty years old. The Astros look to lock up for a few years instead of playing the year-to-year deal.
He averaged 66 innings in the past three years with Houston, and each year, his numbers have improved, some slightly and some significantly. Maton to be is a strong candidate for a multi-year deal.
Prediction: Similar to the deal of Hector Neris, a contract of three years for twenty-four million would be something I could live with for the future.
As for departing free agents, that is it!
Someone must explain how the end is near when they return the following players.
1B. Jose Abreu 37 (under contract until 2025)
2B. Jose Altuve 34 (under contract until 2025 but certainly receiving a new deal this off-season)
SS Jeremy Pena 26 (under team control until the end of 2027)
3B Alex Bregman 30 (under contract until 2025)
C Yanier Diaz 25 (under team control for several years)
RF Kyle Tucker, 27 (under team control for a few more years)
LF/2B Mauricio Dubon 29 (under team control)
CF Chase McCormick 29 (under team control for a few more years)
CF Corey Julks 28 (team control for several years. Hit 245 in 77 starts)
OF Jake Meyers 27 (team control for several years. 168 starts in three years)
DH/LF/1B Yordan Alvarez 26 (signed until through 2028)
Pitchers
SP Justin Verlander 40 (signed through 2025)
SP Lance McCullers, 30 (signed through 2026. Hopefully recovers from injuries)
SP Cristian Javier 26 (signed through 2027)
SP Framber Valdez 30 (team control through 2025)
SP Jose Urquidy 28 (team control through 2025)
SP Luis Garcia 27 (team control through 2026. Recovery from Tommy John surgery)
SP Hunter Brown 25 (team control for several years. Had up and down rookie campaign, might be better suited for the bullpen. 11-13 as a starter but showed promise from the bullpen in playoffs)
SP J.P. France 28 (team control for several years. He went 11-6 and should be in the mix for the 4th spot in the rotation)
RP Ryan Pressly 35 (free agent after 2024 season)
RP Kendall Graveman 33 (free agent after 2024 season)
RP Rafael Montero 33 (free agent after 2025 season)
RP Hector Neris 34 (see above)
RP Bryan Abreu 26 (team control through 2026)
Replacing Dusty Baker
The choice is obvious to anyone who has watched this team for the past few years, and the man is Joe Espada. He has paid his dues being with the franchise for six years and would make for a seamless transition for the Astros as they move to a little modern management style.
Diagnosis for 2024
The roster and rotation are certainly not set for 2024, but for those who have been jealous of their success to think it is coming to an end soon, it just does not hold water.
The rise of the Texas Rangers and Seattle Mariners is a good thing. It now gives the Houston Astros a few rivals to monitor. This is similar to the old days of the Red Sox and the Yankees when their enemy matched each team's move. With Texas winning, it becomes a rivalry now that both teams have made the World Series in consecutive seasons.
Houston, this off-season, needs to add a veteran catcher (maybe Victor Caratini), a starting pitcher (#3 type, perhaps Dylan Cease), and one more bat in the outfield (Tommy Pham).
With so many players heading to arbitration and Alteuve and Bregman likely getting new deals, I do not see a big splash signing. Contrary to what some have said, they have players under team control who produced in limited time that could be used to make more significant trades if warranted.